UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$12.5K
Liquidity
$186.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 30.5h
- 21:32SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 30h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 54¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 54¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 65¢+5.0pp
Fight to Go the Distance?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 30¢+1.0pp
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 34¢-1.0pp
Will Alexander Hernandez win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $53.85
- 23¢-25.0pp
Will Rafa Garcia win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $13.82
- 21¢-0.5pp
Will the fight be won by submission?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 80¢+8.0pp
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 72¢+12.5pp
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 68¢+0.5pp
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $7.35
- 0¢0.0pp
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Alexander Hernandez" if Alexander Hernandez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafa Garcia at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafa Garcia" if Rafa Garcia is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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