Will Rafa Garcia win by KO or TKO?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-26.0pp
24h Vol
$141.96
Liquidity
$885.06
Probability (last 7 days)
-29.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 26pp over 24h
Now 21¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 40.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 9h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 9 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 9.3h
- 18:43SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-26.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: -40.0pp at 08:00 (to 11¢).
Show all 21 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:43 · -28.5pp → 21¢
- 17:00 · -31.0pp → 19¢
- 15:00 · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 14:00 · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 12:00 · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 11:00 · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 09:00 · -39.5pp → 11¢
- 08:00 · -40.0pp → 11¢
- 06:00 · -39.5pp → 10¢
- 05:00 · -39.5pp → 10¢
- 03:00 · -30.5pp → 19¢
- 02:00 · -30.5pp → 19¢
- 00:00 · -30.5pp → 19¢
- 23:00 · -28.0pp → 22¢
- 21:00 · -26.5pp → 23¢
- 20:00 · -25.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · +18.0pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rafa Garcia defeats Alexander Hernandez at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (40.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.