Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Probability
30¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$26.63
Liquidity
$885.78
Probability (last 7 days)
-23.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 30¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 41.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 9h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 9 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 9.3h
- 18:41SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+5.5pp over the last 24h, now 30¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 3d ago (to 29¢).
Show all 56 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +11.5pp → 41¢
- 16:00 · -8.0pp → 21¢
- 15:00 · -8.0pp → 21¢
- 13:00 · -8.5pp → 21¢
- 12:00 · -8.0pp → 21¢
- 10:00 · -10.5pp → 21¢
- 09:00 · -10.5pp → 21¢
- 08:00 · -8.0pp → 21¢
- 06:00 · -10.5pp → 21¢
- 05:00 · -10.5pp → 21¢
- 03:00 · -10.5pp → 21¢
- 02:00 · -10.5pp → 21¢
- 00:00 · -9.5pp → 21¢
- 22:00 · -10.5pp → 21¢
- 20:00 · -8.0pp → 21¢
- 19:00 · -7.5pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -11.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -11.0pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · -11.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -11.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · -11.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -11.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 30¢
- 3d ago · -8.5pp → 30¢
- 3d ago · -9.5pp → 29¢
- 3d ago · -9.0pp → 29¢
- 3d ago · -23.5pp → 30¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 3d ago · -21.5pp → 32¢
- 3d ago · -21.5pp → 32¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 3d ago · -24.5pp → 29¢
- 3d ago · -21.5pp → 32¢
- 3d ago · -22.5pp → 31¢
- 3d ago · -22.0pp → 32¢
- 3d ago · -22.0pp → 32¢
- 3d ago · -22.5pp → 31¢
- 3d ago · -21.5pp → 32¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 4d ago · -21.5pp → 32¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 46¢0.0pp
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $28.1K
- 61¢+3.5pp
Fight to Go the Distance?
Other · Vol $83.89
- 21¢+10.5pp
Will Aljamain Sterling win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $115.38
- 27¢+12.0pp
Will Youssef Zalal win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $16.67
- 30¢-3.5pp
Will the fight be won by submission?
Other · Vol $12.50
- 80¢+8.0pp
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 73¢-6.0pp
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 68¢-4.5pp
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+32.5pp
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $4.2M
- 100¢+40.5pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $3.9M
- 0¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.8M
- 0¢-52.4pp
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (41.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.