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SportsExpires Apr 26, 2026

Fight to Go the Distance?

Probability

77¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+8.5pp

24h Vol

$98.55

Liquidity

$2.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+24.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:03
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 9pp over 24h

    Now 77¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 12h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 7.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 12h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 12 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 03:59Resolve

    Market resolves in 11.9h

    HIGH
  • 16:03Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 12h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:03Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 74¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 28.0pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Joselyne Edwards and Norma Dumont at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.ufc.com/events
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).