Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$29.00
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (96.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 96.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (96.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 316.6h
- 23:26SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.0pp at 4d ago (to 50¢).
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 50¢0.0
Will Malcolm Wellmaker win by KO or TKO?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 71¢0.0
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $60.00
- 50¢0.0
Fight to Go the Distance?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Juan Diaz win by KO or TKO?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-26.5
Magic vs. Pistons
Sports · Vol $4.2M
- 26¢-1.0
Raptors vs. Cavaliers
Sports · Vol $2.6M
- 0¢-21.4
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 51¢+2.0
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢+44.5
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 5¢+1.6
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $1.3M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Malcolm Wellmaker and Juan Diaz at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.