SportsExpires May 3, 2026
Creator

UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

Probability

81¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+31.0pp

24h Vol

$5.9K

Liquidity

$21.0K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Link
ufc.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 23:00Apr 30, 2026, 23:04
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 31pp over 24h

    Now 81¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 53h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $21.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 53 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 52.9h

    HIGH
  • 23:04Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 53h.

    LOW

Price movement

+31.0pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventUFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Marwan Rahiki" if Marwan Rahiki is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Ollie Schmid" if Ollie Schmid is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket