Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
47¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$556.37
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (90.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 47¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 52h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 90.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 52 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (90.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 51.8h
- 00:10SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 52h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 47¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marwan Rahiki and Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.