SportsExpires May 10, 2026
Creator

UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)

Probability

13¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$177.24

Liquidity

$17.5K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.5pp 7d
Apr 27, 2026, 12:00May 4, 2026, 11:51
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 136.1h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

Biggest hourly move: -32.5pp at 3d ago (to 18¢).

Show top 8 of 41 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · -7.0pp → 13¢
  • 00:00 · -5.0pp → 13¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 13¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -4.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -4.5pp → 12¢
  • 3d ago · -5.0pp → 12¢
  • 3d ago · -32.5pp → 18¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Ozzy Diaz" if Ozzy Diaz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ateba Gautier at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Ateba Gautier" if Ateba Gautier is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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