Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$30.94
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 346h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 89.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 345.5h
- 18:29SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 346h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 50¢-1.0pp
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5pp
O/U 3.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 56¢-8.0pp
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $101.79
- 50¢-0.5pp
Fight to Go the Distance?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5pp
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5pp
Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5pp
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-0.5pp
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 96¢+28.0pp
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $4.1M
- 100¢+40.5pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $3.9M
- 0¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.8M
- 0¢-52.4pp
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.4M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (89.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.