Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner
Probability
59¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+14.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$996.28
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 14pp over 24h
Now 59¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $996 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 54¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 7, 23:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 115.9h
Price movement
+14.0pp over the last 24h, now 59¢.
Biggest hourly move: -20.0pp at May 29, 17:00 UTC (to 44¢).
Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
- May 30, 06:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
- May 30, 05:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
- May 30, 03:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
- May 30, 02:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
- May 30, 00:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
- May 29, 21:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
- May 29, 20:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
- May 29, 18:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 44¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Valorant Round 1 match between Leviatán Esports and Global Esports in the VCT Masters London Group Stage, initially scheduled for June 7 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Leviatán Esports" if Leviatán Esports win Map 2 against Global Esports. This market will resolve to "Global Esports" if Global Esports win Map 2 against Leviatán Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
valorantReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "valorant" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner"?
As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 03:07:54 GMT, YES is priced at 59% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +14.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -5.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 7, 2026 (2026-06-07T23:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://vlr.gg.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $996.28. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.