Worse-Scenario
0x75d1b199a96801338e67a6efaa35c0028ea87a5f
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$137.0K
Total PnL
$4.3K
Realised
$2.0K
Win rate
48%
157 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
17229 shares @ 49.4¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.4K
$6.9K
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
13589 shares @ 72.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$13.6K
$3.7K
- YES
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
14914 shares @ 36.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.5K
$2.1K
- NO
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
4018 shares @ 73.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.0K
$1.1K
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
3881 shares @ 53.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.9K
$1.8K
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
9493 shares @ 35.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.8K
$522.09
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
3592 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$3.6K
$826.05
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
3864 shares @ 53.1¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.3K
$1.3K
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
2847 shares @ 57.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$1.2K
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
2809 shares @ 81.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$278.21
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.17Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 157 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
157 closed markets, 48% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 157 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.