Will Apple reach $280 in April?
Probability
33¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-16.5pp
24h Vol
$32.49
Liquidity
$328.95
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 17pp over 24h
Now 33¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 130.8h
- 17:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.5pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 33¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 33¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 33¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.5pp
to 33¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 33¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 33¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.5pp
to 33¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 33¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 33¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 33¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 33¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 33¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 64¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wordingfinance.yahoo.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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