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BusinessExpires May 1, 2026

Will Apple reach $280 in April?

Probability

33¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-16.5pp

24h Vol

$32.49

Liquidity

$328.95

Probability (last 7 days)

-10.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:08
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 17pp over 24h

    Now 33¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 14.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 130.8h

    LOW
  • 17:09Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -30.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -33.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -33.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -23.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -30.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -25.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -32.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -30.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -30.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -28.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.0pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 39.5pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wording
finance.yahoo.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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