Will AC Milan qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
+0.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$43.29
Probability (last 7 days)
-46.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 4.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3066.4h
Price movement
+0.8pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -48.9pp at 17:00 (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 20 hourly moves
- 03:00 · -47.8pp → 3¢
- 02:00 · -47.8pp → 2¢
- 22:00 · -47.8pp → 2¢
- 21:00 · -48.6pp → 2¢
- 20:00 · -48.4pp → 3¢
- 19:00 · -47.9pp → 3¢
- 17:00 · -48.9pp → 2¢
- 15:00 · -47.8pp → 2¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Europa League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Serie A season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Europa League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or Serie A; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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