Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Probability
30¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$5.11
Liquidity
$3.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 30¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 856h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 23.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 856.2h
- 13:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 856h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:44PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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