Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by April 30, 2026?
Probability
22¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$77.54
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 22¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1561h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 32.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1560.7h
- 23:15SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1561h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: -36.5pp at 2d ago (to 17¢).
Show top 8 of 62 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -22.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -19.5pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · -24.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -19.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -36.5pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · -30.0pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · -30.5pp → 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (32.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.