Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026?
Probability
66¢
1h
+17.0pp
24h
+14.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$251.55
Probability (last 7 days)
+17.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 14pp over 24h
Now 66¢; +17.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 21.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1560.2h
- 23:50SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1560h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+14.5pp over the last 24h, now 66¢.
Biggest hourly move: +14.5pp at 23:50 (to 66¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 23:50 · +14.5pp → 66¢
- 10:00 · +4.0pp → 51¢
- 05:00 · +3.0pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 53¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
8- 2¢+0.9pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $372.7K
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Other · Vol $287.6K
- 0¢-1.3pp
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $279.4K
- 86¢-3.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $230.5K
- 1¢-6.9pp
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $227.2K
- 0¢-28.4pp
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $206.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.