Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$30.00
Liquidity
$4.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14743h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $4.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14743.2h
- 16:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14743h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
10- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
AI · Vol $73.15
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
AI · Vol $25.00
- 88¢0.0pp
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
AI · Vol $1.0K
- 1¢-0.4pp
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 10¢0.0pp
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
AI · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of tradingAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.