SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 1, 2026
Creator

Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of Benfica?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-14.4pp

24h Vol

$29.32

Liquidity

$189.21

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 29, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 30, 2026, 11:36 UTC
updated 11:36:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-30T11-36Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 14pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $189 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 6¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2244.4h

    LOW

Price movement

-14.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 11:36:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:36:53 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPrimeira Liga: Next Benfica Manager
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the person appointed as the next permanent manager of SL Benfica. If no permanent manager is appointed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SL Benfica; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

benfica

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "benfica" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of Benfica?"?

As of Sat, 30 May 2026 11:36:53 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -14.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$29.32 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $52.48. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $189.21. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

6 wallets
Open on Polymarket