Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Probability
78¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 78¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1561.1h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 78¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.0pp at 2d ago (to 76¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -10.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 78¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 78¢
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 78¢
- 3d ago · -6.5pp → 78¢
- 3d ago · -8.0pp → 77¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
5Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe first check after it becomes availableLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.