Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Probability
35¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$526.56
Probability (last 7 days)
-13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 10:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
9- 2¢-1.3pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 100¢+38.0pp
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $885.0K
- 100¢+23.9pp
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner
Other · Vol $719.3K
- 59¢-1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $699.5K
- 100¢+35.9pp
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner
Other · Vol $599.1K
- 100¢+23.9pp
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $481.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).