OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026

Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

Probability

6¢

-0.4pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.1pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 05:00Apr 25, 2026, 04:43

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 355.3h
LOW
04:43Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 355h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.2pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -6.9pp
to 4¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.3pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.6pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.7pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.4pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.6pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.9pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.6pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.1pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.2pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.3pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.3pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.3pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.2pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same event2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: May 10, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Wide spread (7.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

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