Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Probability
0¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-3.3pp
24h Vol
$93.66
Liquidity
$2.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-38.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 33h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Expiry in 33h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 33 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 32.7h
- 15:15SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 33h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 0¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 0¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.8pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.2pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.3pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.2pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.3pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.3pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.2pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.8pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 99¢+0.9pp
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $376.95
- 0¢-0.3pp
Will "Bully - Ye" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $556.67
- 0¢-4.1pp
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $198.66
- 0¢-1.4pp
Will "SWAG - Justin Bieber" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $125.81
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $619.88
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will "Octane - Don Toliver" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $200.89
- 50¢0.0pp
Will "Album A" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will "Album B" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $10.9M
- 5¢-1.5pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $2.0M
- 48¢+15.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $932.6K
- 13¢+4.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $833.5K
- 1¢-3.3pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $807.7K
- 4¢+0.3pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $711.1K
Market Description
Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 2, 2026”Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).