Will Armenia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$8.44
Liquidity
$8.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 484h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $8.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 484.3h
- 19:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 484h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 05:00 (to 8¢).
Show all 7 hour-by-hour ticks
- 06:00 · -3.5pp → 9¢
- 05:00 · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 04:00 · -3.5pp → 9¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 20¢+2.0pp
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 34¢+0.5pp
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $115.01
- 76¢+0.5pp
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $598.17
- 4¢-0.3pp
Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 8¢+1.0pp
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 83¢-0.5pp
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $114.07
- 19¢-0.5pp
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $71.61
- 14¢0.0pp
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $31.29
- 22¢-27.0pp
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 100¢+22.4pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 19¢-38.0pp
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Other · Vol $755.9K
- 100¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $552.6K
- 48¢+3.5pp
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Other · Vol $513.3K
- 0¢-1.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $476.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 10 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 10 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeurovision.tv
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.