Will Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.47
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materialsTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (98.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+47.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 98.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materialsTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (98.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification brief
resolution sensitiveThe event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Expired, unresolved
Orrery verification task Will Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B? State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B? State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 10:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +48.0pp at May 31, 06:00 UTC (to 50¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- May 31, 07:00 UTC · +48.0pp → 50¢
- May 31, 06:00 UTC · +48.0pp → 50¢
- May 31, 04:00 UTC · +47.5pp → 50¢
- May 31, 03:00 UTC · +47.5pp → 50¢
- May 31, 02:00 UTC · +47.5pp → 50¢
- May 31, 00:00 UTC · +47.5pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Autodesk's billings for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Autodesk's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:56:39 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +47.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 28, 2026 (2026-05-28T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $174.93. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.47. Spread between best bid and best ask: 98.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.