Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-2.8pp
24h Vol
$356.15
Liquidity
$3.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14749.1h
- 10:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14749h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 17¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.9pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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