Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-25.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 22, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Down 25pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 22, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: youtube.com
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden calls someone by an incorrect name or references the wrong person at any point during his main keynote speech during the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Biden will be considered to have gotten a name wrong if he addresses or refers to an individual using a name that is not their correct or commonly known name. This includes, but is not limited to, using a wrong first or last name, a nickname which is not associated with the person, or any mispronunciation that significantly alters the intended name (e.g. when Biden referred to Rishi Sunak as ‘Mr. Sanook’ this would qualify for a “Yes” see:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qm9IjiwJxAo). If Biden says a person's name correctly but associates it with incorrect events or a different identity, this will also be sufficient to resolve the market to "Yes" (e.g. Biden says Andrew Tate is the current President of France). If Biden corrects himself after using an incorrect name, it will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. However, if Biden begins correcting the name before he has completed saying the incorrect name, and completes a full pronunciation correctly, it will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Biden does not give a keynote speech before the end of the DNC, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video footage of the speech.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
bidenReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "biden" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 16:18:37 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -25.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 22, 2024 (2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $32.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
2 wallets- Humiliating-Stump1.2K
- Salty-Spine241
None.