EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires —
Creator

Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Probability

3¢

1h

+2.0pp

24h

-25.4pp

24h Vol

$185.54

Liquidity

$933.73

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ET
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 00:00May 1, 2026, 19:31
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 25pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 4.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 8¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-25.4pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -38.5pp at 12:00 (to 10¢).

Show 5 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · -34.5pp → 5¢
  • 17:00 · -37.7pp → 3¢
  • 15:00 · -31.5pp → 10¢
  • 14:00 · -31.5pp → 10¢
  • 12:00 · -38.5pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventTop Spotify artist in May?
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

6 wallets
Open on Polymarket