Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$153.67
Liquidity
$1.4K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ETTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 3¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ETTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -45.6pp at 12:00 (to 3¢).
Show 5 hourly moves
- 19:00 · -37.5pp → 2¢
- 17:00 · -39.9pp → 1¢
- 15:00 · -38.6pp → 3¢
- 14:00 · -38.5pp → 3¢
- 12:00 · -45.6pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify.
Alerts
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