Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?

1. 1

   Down 23pp over 24h

   Now 48¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 7.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in the listed month, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the last day of the specified month in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the first day of the specified month, 12:00 AM in the ET timezone (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The percentage change in the S&P 500 (SPX) will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day of the specified month to the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day before the specified month, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices). If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. Exactly equal performance of both assets will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices" (US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks, EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea, ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia).