SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 6, 2026
Creator

Will BSW win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Probability

1¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.3K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
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Probability (last 7 days)

-0.4pp 7d
Apr 26, 2026, 00:00May 2, 2026, 23:16
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 3024.7h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.1pp at 1d ago (to 1¢).

Show 3 hourly moves
  • 1d ago · -3.0pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -3.1pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -3.0pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place
Category · Sports

Market Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

12 wallets
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