Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$4.00
Liquidity
$895.32
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 44¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1953h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 46.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1952.8h
- 15:10SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1953h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:10PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 40¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 36¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 37¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 38¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 37¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 35¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 35¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 36¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 35¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 40¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for QAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (46.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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