EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$627.79

Liquidity

$667.06

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the most-streamed song in the U
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 9, 2026, 18:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 15:22 UTC
updated 15:22:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T15-22Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 9h.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $667 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 9 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 8.6h

    HIGH
  • 15:22Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 9h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

Biggest hourly move: +47.1pp at May 12, 06:00 UTC (to 97¢).

Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
  • May 13, 00:00 UTC · +33.0pp → 99¢
  • May 12, 22:00 UTC · +32.5pp → 98¢
  • May 12, 17:00 UTC · +40.5pp → 98¢
  • May 12, 15:00 UTC · +40.5pp → 98¢
  • May 12, 14:00 UTC · +40.5pp → 98¢
  • May 12, 09:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 97¢
  • May 12, 07:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 97¢
  • May 12, 06:00 UTC · +47.1pp → 97¢
updated 15:22:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 15:22:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event#1 song on US Spotify this week? (May 15)
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled May 15. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled May 15 by May 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

spotify

Reason

Question text contains "spotify" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 15:22:49 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$627.79 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $667.06. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket