Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Probability
14¢
1h
-2.8pp
24h
+6.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 14¢; -2.8pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 898h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 898.5h
- 13:30SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 898h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:30PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.0pp
to 37¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 16¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.3pp
to 6¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.3pp
to 6¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.1pp
to 6¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 17¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -38.1pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.8pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.2pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.3pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.3pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.4pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
10- 59¢+1.5pp
Will Randy Villegas advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 94¢-1.6pp
Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $36.00
- 3¢+0.1pp
Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 40¢+1.0pp
Will Jasmeet Bains advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $3.5M
- 3¢-1.1pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $636.7K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $560.6K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $457.4K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $372.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $346.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California'sAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (16.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).