Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?

1. 1

   Down 4pp over 24h

   Now 0¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $8.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).