Will Comey insult Trump by Friday?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Expires in 45h.

• 02
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $16.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 03
  Resolution proximity

  Expiry in 45h

  Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if James Comey makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Donald Trump personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 1, 11:59 PM ET (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Comey qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.