EntertainmentExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Probability

4¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-6.0pp

24h Vol

$112.66

Liquidity

$24.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 66h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
eurovision.tv
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.3pp 7d
1007550250
4¢
May 6, 2026, 07:00May 13, 2026, 06:03
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-13T06-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 66h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $24.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 66 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 65.9h

    HIGH
  • 06:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 66h.

    LOW

Price movement

-6.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: +6.5pp at 14:00 (to 16¢).

Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · +5.6pp → 14¢
  • 14:00 · +6.5pp → 16¢
  • 3d ago · +4.6pp → 8¢
  • 3d ago · +5.5pp → 9¢
  • 3d ago · +5.4pp → 9¢
  • 3d ago · +4.6pp → 9¢
  • 3d ago · +4.6pp → 9¢
  • 3d ago · +4.6pp → 9¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventEurovision 2026: Top 3
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

eurovision

Reason

Question text contains "eurovision" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?"?

As of Wed, 13 May 2026 06:03:19 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -6.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and -3.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$112.66 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $24.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket