Loading shell…
AIMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Probability

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$8.7K

Liquidity

$4.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 108.1h

    LOW
  • 11:53Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).