Will Didier Deschamps be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-9.0pp
24h Vol
$110.45
Liquidity
$467.23
Probability (last 7 days)
-39.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $467 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6006.2h
- 17:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-14.0pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -48.0pp at 2d ago (to 16¢).
Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -12.0pp → 5¢
- 15:00 · -12.0pp → 5¢
- 14:00 · -12.0pp → 5¢
- 12:00 · -12.0pp → 5¢
- 10:00 · -12.0pp → 5¢
- 06:00 · +7.0pp → 24¢
- 05:00 · +7.0pp → 24¢
- 03:00 · +5.0pp → 27¢
- 00:00 · -12.5pp → 17¢
- 23:00 · +4.5pp → 24¢
- 21:00 · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 20:00 · -4.5pp → 12¢
- 19:00 · +5.5pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -6.5pp → 10¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -15.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -18.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -48.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -34.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -34.0pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -30.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.