PoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026?

Probability

2¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$156.12

Liquidity

$28.7K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-22.8pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 27, 2026, 03:00 UTCJun 3, 2026, 02:45 UTC
updated 02:47:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-03T02-47Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 645.2h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: -23.1pp at May 29, 16:00 UTC (to 2¢).

Show 3 hourly moves
  • May 29, 20:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 2¢
  • May 29, 18:00 UTC · -22.6pp → 2¢
  • May 29, 16:00 UTC · -23.1pp → 2¢
updated 02:47:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 02:47:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will Trump publicly insult by June 30?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026?"?

As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 02:47:12 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -22.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$156.12 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket