Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.1pp
24h Vol
$479.66
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 111.4h
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 111h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 6¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 6¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 6¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 9¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 12¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 8¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 6¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 11¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.7pp
to 5¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 5¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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