Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?
Probability
91¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$11.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 89.0h
- 06:59SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 89h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 91¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 91¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 91¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 91¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 89¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).