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PoliticsExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?

Probability

88¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.5pp

24h Vol

$365.66

Liquidity

$10.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 07:00Apr 25, 2026, 06:58
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 113.0h

    LOW
  • 06:58Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 113h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWill Trump publicly insult someone on...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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