PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 3, 2026?

Probability

3¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-33.0pp

24h Vol

$50.00

Liquidity

$359.57

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
White House
Link
whitehouse.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 16:00May 3, 2026, 15:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 33pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $360 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 8¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 656.1h

    LOW

Price movement

-33.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -45.4pp at 15:00 (to 3¢).

Show 7 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · -45.4pp → 3¢
  • 14:00 · -45.0pp → 4¢
  • 13:00 · -43.5pp → 5¢
  • 11:00 · -21.0pp → 28¢
  • 10:00 · -19.5pp → 29¢
  • 09:00 · -19.5pp → 29¢
  • 08:00 · -19.0pp → 29¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventWill Trump sign an executive order on...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

2 wallets
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