Will Donald Trump tweet announcing that he won the election before November 5th 2020?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.30
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 5, 2020
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 5, 2020
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Donald Trump tweet announcing that he won the election before November 5th 2020? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Donald Trump tweet announcing that he won the election before November 5th 2020? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:38SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market on if Donald Trump will tweet an announcement that he successfully won the election before November 5th, 12:01 am EST. If Trump says he “Won”, or claims definitive victory, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he claims he won before the market resolution time, but later admits to losing or informally or formally concedes before November 5th, that will overrule his previous claim of winning, and the market will resolve to “No”. If he claims something to the effect of that it looks like he is going to win, or he should win, or *should’ve* won, the market will resolve to “No”. The Tweet must be in the form of an announcement claiming victory, not a tweet about rejecting official results and that he should be the winer. If he rejects the results as being insufficient in some way or needing a recount, but does not definitively claim he Won, in the fashion of claiming victory, the market will resolve to “No”. If the election hasn’t been called yet by resolution time, and Trump has not definitively claimed victory, the market will resolve to “No”. If Trump wins and announces it via Tweet before resolution time, the market will resolve to “Yes”. It boils down to Trump tweeting definitively that he successfully won, not that the results are wrong and he should’ve won: it must resemble a victory tweet. This tweet must come from one of his official Twitter accounts, either https://twitter.com/POTUS or https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump and does not include Retweets. We're aware this is not the most unambiguous metric to resolve the market on, however the Market Integrity Committee will resolve this market in good faith as objectively accurate as possible.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump tweet announcing that he won the election before November 5th 2020?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 20:38:52 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 5, 2020 (2020-11-05T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $127.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.30. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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