Will Drake feature Sampha on ICEMAN?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-33.0pp
24h Vol
$514.97
Liquidity
$3.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 33pp over 24h
Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $3.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 17¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5943.1h
Price movement
-33.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: -35.5pp at 18:00 (to 8¢).
Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -32.0pp → 12¢
- 06:00 · -32.0pp → 12¢
- 05:00 · -31.5pp → 12¢
- 00:00 · -33.0pp → 11¢
- 23:00 · -33.0pp → 11¢
- 21:00 · -33.0pp → 11¢
- 20:00 · -34.5pp → 9¢
- 18:00 · -35.5pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed artists who feature on Drake's album "ICEMAN". To qualify as "featured", the listed artist must be credited on at least one song on the album according to at least one major streaming platform: namely Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music. If the album fails to release by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.