EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?

Probability

39¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$59.99

Liquidity

$67.90

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled May 15
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (76.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 9, 2026, 23:00May 10, 2026, 03:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-10T03-50Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 76.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 116.2h

    LOW
  • 03:50Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event#1 song on Spotify this week? (May 15)
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled May 15. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled May 15 by May 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

spotify

Reason

Question text contains "spotify" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?"?

As of Sun, 10 May 2026 03:50:42 GMT, YES is priced at 39% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$59.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $59.99. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $67.90. Spread between best bid and best ask: 76.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

4 wallets
Open on Polymarket