Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass?
Probability
100¢
1h
+8.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 6, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimarySEC filingTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +8.5pp in the last hour.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 6, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimarySEC filingTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: SEC filing
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market refers to the shareholder vote on Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion Tesla pay package scheduled for November 6, 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla shareholders approve a compensation plan for Elon Musk that is substantially the same as the proposed $1 trillion plan, meaning a performance-based pay structure of comparable scale and scope, designed to grant equity awards worth roughly $1 trillion at full vesting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. Minor amendments to the compensation plan that change its total potential value or structure by less than 10% will count. Changes exceeding this threshold will not. If the meeting is rescheduled, this market will remain open until the decision is announced. If the meeting is rescheduled beyond December 31, 2025, permanently canceled, or the decision is otherwise not published by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla’s investor relations and SEC filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
teslaReason
Question text contains "tesla" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 12:31:43 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +7.0pp in the last 24 hours, +8.5pp in the last hour, and +6.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 6, 2025 (2025-11-06T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $900.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.