Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $610b and $620b on April 30?
Probability
3¢
1h
-1.9pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$40.92
Liquidity
$2.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.1h
- 13:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 4¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 5¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.9pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 3¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- BloombergNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).