Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?
Probability
16¢
1h
-3.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$281.81
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 16¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.1h
- 13:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:53PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 18¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 16¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 17¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 18¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 20¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 20¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 17¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 22¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 20¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 18¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 19¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 19¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- BloombergNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).