Small-Chateau
0x4282cd3cc3bfad819275b1097015e5e58226ea9d
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$17.71
Total PnL
$-133.24
Realised
$307.85
Win rate
100%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
22 shares @ 86.8¢·now 75.1¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$16.66
$-2.60
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
2 shares @ 34.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.99
$0.48
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.05
$-0.25
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
5500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.51
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?
3075 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-220.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 15?
2777 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
2617 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-41.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15?
1977 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-85.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 15?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15?
1231 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$18.86Jun 12, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$30.45Jun 5, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$28.66Jun 5, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seoul have between 120-130mm of precipitation in May?$2.02Jun 3, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$27.64Jun 1, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$27.65Jun 1, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$26.30May 30, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.37May 19, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.60May 19, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.09May 19, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$2.68May 19, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.08May 19, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.60May 19, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$14.66May 19, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$16.00May 19, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.05May 19, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$22.23May 19, 01:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$11.53May 19, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.37May 18, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.15May 18, 12:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $19.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 12:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 01:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.